Meanwhile in Vienna, Pak pushes for a vote on India’s safeguards pact

NEW DELHI, JULY 21: While New Delhi debates the survival of the Manmohan Singh government over the Indo-US nuclear deal, Pakistan is stepping up diplomatic efforts in Vienna to press for a vote on the India-specific safeguards agreement besides questioning the hurry shown by the IAEA to obtain approval for this agreement.

As a member of the 35-member IAEA board of governors, Pakistan, sources said, is holding out against a consensus in the informal consultations underway among board members in Vienna ahead of the August 1 board meet that will consider this matter. Sources said hectic diplomacy is going on, especially by the US, to get Pakistan not to block a consensus.

Usually, the “Vienna spirit” is to achieve a consensus regardless of which side the majority is on any issue that comes to IAEA. Voting has always been the last option and, in fact, the last voting took place on the Iran nuclear programme two years ago. According to officials, there has rarely been an instance of voting on a safeguards agreement.

While this issue is still in the realm of informal consultations, sources said, Islamabad has in the past couple of weeks raised objections to the urgency being shown in Vienna to push the India-specific safeguards agreement.

At first, it raised a technical point that the nuclear facilities to be brought under safeguards have not been listed in the annexures of the agreement finalised with India. As a board member, Pakistan took the view that the IAEA secretariat should wait till the facilities can be specifically listed and then bring the matter before the board of governors.

Further, Pakistan questioned the urgency for making an exception to the 45-60-day period usually needed for the board of governors to consider any such matter. While the IAEA secretariat and other members of the board prevailed on grounds that there have been precedents where such exceptions have been made, Pakistan seems to be continuing with its efforts.

Currently, sources said, hectic diplomacy is underway to get Pakistan not to insist on its demand. The danger of voting would mean that several other

countries which have strong positions on non-proliferation and are also members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group will be forced to take positions on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

This, in turn, can have an adverse fallout in the NSG where these countries would be bound by a public stand. Since NSG takes its decisions only by way of consensus, a lack of flexibility may escalate problems for US interlocutors who will be making the case for India.

Already the confusion over holding the July 18 briefing has had its effect. Initially, India had notified the IAEA that the briefing will be in the Agency for all members. Then, it withdrew the notice. Few hours later, New Delhi said it will hold the briefing outside IAEA for the board and NSG members. Amid all this back and forth, EU countries requested a special briefing by the IAEA secretariat as not all EU members of the IAEA could have been present at the India briefing.

Thumbs up, fingers crossed

New Delhi, July 21: Ten hours into the make-or-break debate on the Indo-US nuclear deal in the Lok Sabha on Monday, the first signs of pressure easing were visible in the Treasury Benches: Congress President Sonia Gandhi thumped the desk at least 20 times, sometimes with both hands, to egg on her speakers, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh prodded on MoS Anand Sharma as he sought to nail down the Opposition on the Kandahar hijack and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee often broke out in smiles and laughter.

Crisis managers of the Congress claimed the government had the “assured” support of 276-277 MPs for the trust vote tomorrow and they hoped the figure would go beyond 280. However, no one was willing to spell out the arithmetic behind such a claim.

Until Monday evening, there were only 266 MPs who had pledged support to the UPA, including Somabhai Patel, BJP MP from Gujarat, who declared his support today.

The ruling camp’s hopes apparently hinge on the success of their “plan” to engineer abstentions and last-minute defections. So far, they were “positive” about six BJP MPs, four Shiv Sena MPs and three Shiromani Akali Dal MPs — the last six had almost fallen into their lap with the MPs concerned approaching Parliamentary Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi. But their demands were unending — and so uncertainty continued.

Both the Opposition and the Congress, in the meantime, are working frantically over potential defectors. While talks with the Shiv Sena MPs were on, Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh and Shiv Sena leader Manohar Joshi spent hours in the visitors’ gallery in the Lok Sabha.

Apprehensive of last-minute slips — Sonia Gandhi’s infamous “272 episode” in 1999 is a constant reminder — the ruling side was still keeping its channels open with the JD(S) and the RLD even though both these parties have already pledged their support to the Mayawati-led Third Alternative.

The ruling side felt that former Karnataka Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, unlike his father HD Deve Gowda, was inclined to tie up with the UPA and the ruling party crisis managers were seeking to exploit the rift. Both the JD(S) and the RLD, however, vehemently denied any change of heart.

Meanwhile, BSP camp managers, led by part chief Mayawati, who was in the capital today, worked overtime to attract few more MPs from the ruling camp, including some from the SP. She hosted a dinner for party MPs today. Rebel Congress MP from Karnal Arvind Sharma also called on her today.

SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, who watched the debate in the Lok Sabha sitting in the visitors’ gallery, was learnt to have met rebel party MPs today in a bid to win at least some of them back. After Mulayam’s talks with party MPs and rebels, SP sources said that the party got a “positive response” from some rebels but declined to give any names.

Sources said the SP leadership is also learnt to have contacted some BSP MPs to consider voting for the government. They said talks were on with MPs with whom the party had been in contact over the last few days. However, while the party hoped a positive response from at least one BSP MP, it declined to confirm it.

Meanwhile, BSP’s Rajya Sabha MP and party general secretary S C Mishra along with Akhilesh Das were spotted in the Central Hall of Parliament. They were learnt to have touched base with some ruling party MPs, including from the SP. Atiq Ahmed, of the SP, brought from the jail for the session, was found sitting with BSP MP Akbar Ahmed ‘Dumpy’.

From Lucknow citadels, BSP, SP track moves of leaders in Delhi

LUCKNOW, JULY 21: As the debate on nuclear deal began in the national Capital on the eve of the trust vote, party offices in Lucknow presented pictures in contrast. The Indian Express visited the offices

Congress

With hopes of winning the trust vote, a view endorsed by the astrologers, the Congress is in high spirits. Unlike other parties, the Congress party office was bustling with activities. The party workers were glued to the television, watching the proceedings of Parliament.

“The numbers are in our favour. Jyotishi bhi keh rahe hain ki Sarkar nahin giregi (Astrologers also predict that the government will not fall),” said a spokesperson. Congressmen were overjoyed with the way leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan have backed the government.

“This indicates that the UPA leaders will jointly undertake the campaign in the forthcoming Parliamentary elections,” said a party worker.

Samajwadi Party

The Samajwadi party, which seems to have given a fresh lease of life to the Government, which was suffering from a bad honeymoon with the Left as their coalition party, is seen by its party workers as a key player to end the autocratic rule present in the state.

A few party workers who were present on the office premises said they were impatient to know the fate of the Manmohan Singh government. According to them, if the government survives, the credit goes to the party chief. “Netaji will be in a position to keep a check on the chief minister’s autocratic style of functioning,” said a party worker.

Bahujan Samaj Party

With Behenji busy making her way to 7 Race Course; party workers were busy backing her ‘national interests’. The Chief Minister who has now become the magnet in the Operation Topple, has taken away all the political drama from Lucknow to her New Delhi residence.

On the contrary, the office of BSP, located near Yojana Bhavan presented a different look with party workers busy giving a patient hearing to those people who had come with their problems.

“This is our second office. Go to Mall Road to see the general mood among the party workers,” said a BSP leader. The entry to media, however, is not allowed in the BSP’s Mall Road office. “It is Behenji’s job to decide the political line in the national politics. She cares for our interest,” said a party supporter outside the BSP office in Mall road.

Bharatiya Janata Party

The BJP, which views this political realignment as a opportunity to gain political mileage, the party workers were closely following each development taking place in the national Capital.

A few party workers who were present in the party office were not so enthusiastic about the possibility of the fall of the UPA government. “Now is the time for Maya versus Mulayam. If the government survives, Maya is bound to face the music. If it falls, Mulayam will find it difficult to keep his Muslim vote bank intact,” said a BJP legislator on conditions of anonymity.

He felt the SP chief Mulayam Singh may be used as a tool by the Congress party to counter the Maya factor in state. “The party will gain from the mistakes that other parties might commit,” he added.

Maya waves Left’s Iran flag on deal

MICS - India Shekhar kulshreshtha

NEW DELHI, JULY 21: Armed with the Left and UNPA support, BSP chief Mayawati on Monday attempted to package herself as a prime ministerial candidate, speaking on the Indo-US nuclear deal and India’s foreign policy.

As PM Manmohan Singh sought the confidence of the Lok Sabha, she held a press conference at her Humayun Road residence in her new avtar. However, she virtually parroted the views of the Left parties.

“The UPA Government should not make the deal a prestige issue, and suspend it for the time being. They should allow the next government to take an appropriate decision as elections are round the corner,” she said, reading out a statement.

While Mayawati did not call the deal anti-Muslim, she said it would endanger world peace and hamper the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. “It is deeply feared that after the Indo-US deal is clinched, the US will attack Iran,” she said, adding the UPA Government would have to take the blame as this would hurt the economic growth of India. “India will share a major portion of the blame for the war and for this the UPA Government will be directly responsible.”

She called for Indo-US relations on equal terms and argued for permanent membership for India in the UN Security Council. “Across the world, friendship is based on a give-and-take basis. If the US is so eager for a strategic relationship with India, it should support India’s demand for a permanent membership in the Security Council,” she said.

The deliberate attempt to project herself as a tall leader was amply clear as she refused to join issue with the SP over horsetrading charges and the BJP’s opposition to her prime ministerial ambition. “I don’t take note of useless talk,” she said when asked that the BJP had said that she would never become Prime Minister.

Later in the day, Mayawati met Chandrababu Naidu for one and a half hours. Rebel Congress MP from Karnal Arvind Kumar Sharma also met the BSP chief.

There are some (young) people in BJP 100% for deal: Rahul

MICS - India By Shekhar Kulshreshtha

Deal Says if Govt falls acting in national interest, so be it

JAYAS (AMETHI), JULY 16: Praising Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s “vision, tenacity and leadership” on the Indo-US nuclear deal, AICC general secretary and Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi today said the deal was worth the risk and “desh hit mein sarkar gir jaye to gir jaye (if the government falls while acting in national interest, so be it)”. He, however, expressed confidence that the government would win the trust vote in Parliament on July 22.

Gandhi took the battle over the deal into the heart of the BJP when he said “there are people in BJP and other parties who are 100 per cent for the deal.”

“I have spoken to many young leaders across parties. They support the deal and are convinced about it. They say they don’t understand why their leadership is opposed to it,” he told reporters at the end of a three-day visit to his constituency.

“The parties that are opposing the deal also know that it is good for the country. Right-thinking persons say this is an exceptional deal. Every youth appreciates this deal. The deal is being opposed only because of ideological points or political compulsions.”

Describing the nuclear deal as key to India’s energy needs and future development, Gandhi praised Singh for his decision to go ahead with the deal even if it meant risking his own government.

“Kabhi risk lena parta hai, government ko risk hai. Desh hit mein sarkar gir jaye to gir jaye (Sometimes one has to take a risk, there is a risk to the government. If the government falls while acting in national interest, so be it).”

“This is the right thing to do. This (deal) is important for the future of India. Take the risk again and again... if it is in the national interest,” he said. “Our Prime Minister has decided what is in the national interest.”

Gandhi said the Left parties were opposed the deal due to political or ideological compulsions but “if we are convinced that it is in national interest, we have to press ahead with it”.

He drew a parallel between the current situation and the time when his father Rajiv Gandhi introduced computers in the country. “I remember I was a child and my father was talking about computers and new technology in the telecom sector. There were people who ridiculed the computer. They would ask computer se kisan ko kya faida hoga (how will farmers benefit from a computer?),” he said. “Now the computer is used everywhere. It has changed the entire country.”

He said it was incorrect to say that nuclear energy can meet only three per cent of the energy requirement. “How do you say this?” he asked, adding that the deal would one day help meet 70 per cent of energy needs. “This is a big opportunity to become a major player in the field of nuclear industry.”

Asked whether the Congress alliance with the Samajwadi Party would continue even during the next elections, Gandhi said his party’s first concern was about the votes in Parliament.

N-deal to boost India's nuclear energy production

With the government emerging victorious in the confidence motion, the country would be signing the civilian nuclear deal with the US which has the potential to significantly boost India's nuclear energy production, says a report by Moody's Economy.Com.

"Following two days of vigorous debate, India's lower house yesterday pushed through a government motion that should see the world's largest democracy sign a civilian nuclear energy agreement with the United States.

"Despite not having signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the agreement could see India gain access to US civilian nuclear technology as well as end sanctions preventing purchases of American uranium," Moody's Economy.Com, an associate of global rating agency Moody's, said in a report today.

According to the report, the deal with the US has the potential to boost India's nuclear energy production which currently accounts for only three per cent of the electricity supply.

"... With the deal still having a long way to go before being formally signed by the nation's leaders and more political wrangling is likely. This means that Indians will do doubt have to wait some time before they see the benefits of the agreement in the form of greater, and more secure, energy production," Moody's Economy.Com's Associate Economist Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya said.

Noting that the deal has "probably passed its toughest test", the report pointed out that it remains important in securing the country's long-term "energy future."

Security sought for Samajwadi Party MPs

MICS - India Shekhar Kulshreshtha
NEW DELHI: : After having made his “economic grievances” public on the nuclear deal, Samajwadi Party (SP) general secretary Amar Singh has now raised “security concerns” about his party MPs with the Government.

Sources claim that Amar Singh has approached the Government to provide extra security cover to about half a dozen party MPs, including MP from Rampur Jayaprada. His demands have been forwarded to the Home Ministry for the threat assessment of concerned MPs before the Government takes a final decision.

The SP’s demand comes in the wake of threats and offers being made by the BSP to its party MPs to cross over and vote against the Government on July 22. While several MPs have informed this to the SP leadership, the party’s MP from Pratapgarh in Uttar Pradesh, Akshay Pratap Singh, has even written a letter to the Speaker of the Lok Sabha and the Home Minister seeking their protection before the vote of confidence.

IAEA calls board for India pact on Aug 1, Delhi plans to brief Friday

MICS - India Shekhar Kulshreshtha

Deal All NSG countries members of IAEA, so briefing to address their concerns

NEW DELHI, JULY 14: Moving fast on the India-specific safeguards agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency has called for a board of governors meeting on August 1 to take up the issue. And in the run-up to that meeting, India plans to hold a special briefing for all IAEA member-states on July 18 in Vienna, three days before the House meets for the trust vote.

It’s learnt that India has already asked IAEA to intimate member states about this open briefing to which all are invited to seek answers or clarify doubts about the document as well as on broader issues. In fact, there is a possibility that Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon could go for the meeting although a final decision is yet to be taken.

Given that all 45 NSG countries are also members of the IAEA but not necessarily on the 35-member board of governors, India’s open briefing is a clear sign of stepping up diplomatic efforts before the board meeting. For, it is expected to help address all NSG members making it easier for them to take a decision whenever the NSG is convened.

India had confirmed the safeguards agreement with IAEA on July 8 and it was circulated the next day among all members. Having got over a week to study the details, the members will be in a position on July 18 to enter into a “fruitful discussion” on the issue, sources said. More importantly, it will allow the Indian side to present its case and lobby for support.

As for the board of governors meeting, sources said, the IAEA secretariat had already conveyed it to all board members and while confirmation is still awaited from all countries, indications are that the date is acceptable as sufficient groundwork was done before proposing the date. This will allow IAEA to finish its task just as the vacation month of August starts.

Top officials said the urgency shown by the IAEA is also reflective of the commitment of IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei to the nuclear deal. The agreement, which is now public, also shows that the agency was accommodating to Indian concerns and accepted references into the text that are unique to any safeguards agreement. Key among them is the non-hindrance clause which commits IAEA to not involve itself with India’s military programme while implementing the safeguards agreement.

In effect, this acknowledges India’s nuclear weapon programme which is a rare exception. Besides this, IAEA has also allowed India to build a strategic fuel reserve for the lifetime supply of fuel to its reactors.

This moves away from the general IAEA principle to allow only that much amount of fuel needed for reasonable reactor requirements. Hectic diplomatic efforts will continue on the margins of all the politics with US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns expected to visit India right after the UPA government faces the vote of confidence.

Don’t go by Kalam’s opinion on deal: Shourie

New Delhi, July 14: The BJP has alleged that the IAEA draft agreement shows that "India would be bound as a non-nuclear weapon state in perpetuity" and said the US was pushing the deal through "as it would bring India under the non-proliferation regime".

"In his address to the Lok Sabha on July 29, 2005, the Prime Minister had said we shall undertake the same responsibilities and obligations as the US. We expect the same rights and the benefits as the US. And India will never accept discrimination," BJP leader Arun Shourie said, adding that the assurance had been flouted in the IAEA draft agreement as "it does not recognise India as a Nuclear Weapons State (NWS)".

He also said that "one should not go by the opinions of the big names" like A P J Abdul Kalam and Brajesh Mishra while discussing the Indo-US nuclear deal. "I did not want to bring Kalam into this at all but he has come in and the Samajwadi Party and others are taking shelter under his great name," Shourie said.

He said that Kalam had sought an appointment with him three months back to discuss the nuclear issue. Though they conversed for more than an hour, Kalam did not come up with any new argument, Shourie said.

Shourie also claimed that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had told BJP leaders that the imported uranium post the Indo-US nuclear deal would be used for civilian purposes while the indigenous uranium would serve the country's defence needs. Shourie said this statement was made in a meeting called by the Prime Minister in August 2007, during which the 123 agreement was discussed.

Why n-deal worries the league

MICS - India By shekhar kulshreshtha

IUML’s stand on nuke deal gives Left, Ma’adani another chance to whip up anti-US sentiment

Thiruvananthapuram, July 11: The Indian Union Muslim League’s decision to support the UPA Government in the nuclear deal has put the party in a tight spot in Kerala, its stronghold. The party, an ally of the Congress-led United Democratic Front in the state, is being pulled up by Muslim organisations, both mainstream and fringe, for supporting the Congress. These organisations have found the issue as a chance to storm into community bastions, whipping up anti-US sentiments and IUML’s craze to wallow in power.

Besides, the IUML’s stand has given the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front an opportunity to raise the anti-US plank in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan on Friday fired the first salvo against the IUML saying that by supporting the Congress, IUML had proved it was loyal to US imperialism.

People’s Democratic Party chairman Abdul Nazar Ma’adani told The Indian Express that IUML had resorted to double standards on the issue. “The Muslim community across the world had been facing atrocities sponsored by the US. The deal with an anti-Muslim country should have been opposed by the IUML.” He said IUML would have to pay for its reluctance to address the issue. On several issues, like the demolition of the Babri Masjid, IUML had failed to rise to the aspirations of the community, he said.

The anti-US sentiments being whipped up by Left parties and extremist Muslim outfits in the state would be a matter of concern for the IUML in the next election, when the party desperately needs an electoral comeback. The party had lost Manjeri Lok Sabha seat, its stronghold, in the 2004 election. Its worst electoral performance was in the state Assembly election held in 2006, when the party was pulverized by the Left and IUML rebels, who exposed the party’s weakness in critical issues affecting the community.

The CPI(M) had played the anti-American strategy to the hilt twice in the recent past. During the Assembly election in 2006, the LDF had approached Muslim voters highlighting the Congress Government’s pro-US stand and India’s vote against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency.

In the bypoll to Thiruvambady Assembly constituency held in December, 2006, the LDF took up the issue of Saddam Hussein, served with death sentence then, to solicit Muslim votes for the CPI(M) candidate. The Left had emphasised the Congress-led UPA Government’s failure to condemn the death sentence and flay the US for manipulating the case against the ousted Iraqi president. The Left played the anti-US trick, knowing very well that Saddam had been close to Muslim hearts. As expected, Saddam and a host of other factors helped the CPI(M) candidate scrape through in the bypoll.

The Left strategy to tap Muslims’ anti-US feelings always stemmed from the helplessness of the IUML to react to all issues pertaining to the US and its imperialistic tendencies. IUML, being an ally of the Congress at the Centre and in Kerala as well, had been in a quandary to openly criticise the foreign policies of the Government.

“The nuclear deal would certainly influence the Muslim voters in the election. The Muslim community has always fought against imperialistic forces. That was why Saddam’s death sentence and Iran issue had influenced the community in Kerala,” said K T Jaleel, MLA and an IUML rebel, who defeated party state general secretary K P Kunhalikkuty in the Muslim-dominated Kuttipuram constituency in north Kerala.

IUML state secretary E T Muhammed Basheer told The Indian Express that the party had considered several other issues while deciding to support the Congress in the deal. “We have to ensure that communal forces do not return to power. The party has to look beyond the nuclear deal while taking a decision,” he said.

Meanwhile, on July 2, CPI(M) mouthpiece Deshabhimani had carried an article, written by party MLA P Jayarajan, giving enough hints that the party would highlight the nuclear deal in Kerala as IUML’s failure to stand up to American imperialism. The article said that IUML has double standards on the nuclear deal. It said the Congress was with the US, which had killed many in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine. Manmohan Singh, under duress from the America, was hell-bent on inking the deal. The IUML has been silent on the issue, even when dissenting voices against the deal have come from within the Congress and the UPA. The article, referring to League’s silence on the nuclear issue, said IUML leaders in Kerala owe allegiance to America, Congress, power and money.

Nuclear deal wins Washington as it continues to battle New Delhi

house of reps n Bipartisan support 359-68; clears way to reinforce alliance: Hyde

Washington, July 27: Surprising even many of the Indian supporters and those in the State Department, the House of Representatives last night passed the civilian nuclear agreement between India and the United States with an overwhelming majority.

After over four hours of marathon debate on the path-breaking agreement inked about an year ago when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, visited here, as many as 359 Congressmen voted in favour of the bill (No. 5682), while the opposition was restricted to just 68 lawmakers.

The vote is a quick, major victory for the Bush administration, which argued that nurturing India as an ally outweighed critics’ concerns that the agreement would free more nuclear material for India to use for the manufacture of nuclear weapons.

Until the vote on Wednesday evening, American law had prohibited nuclear cooperation with any of the three states that have refused to sign the nonproliferation treaty: India, Pakistan and Israel.

Several leading Democrats, including Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader, argued in favor of the deal, which was supported by both the India-American lobby and the nuclear industry.

An amendment offered by several Democrats that would require India to agree to limit its production of nuclear weapons fuel was defeated on the floor on Wednesday evening, with supporters of the deal saying it would be rejected by the Indians.

“India already possesses nuclear weapons, and is very unlikely to dispose of them,” Representative Henry J. Hyde, the Republican from Illinois who is chairman of the House International Relations Committee. “This is the proverbial deal killer.”

The bill got bipartisan support from the lawmakers. Congressional details of the voting pattern show that as many as 219 Republicans voted in favor of the nuke bill, while only nine lawmakers voted against. While 140 Democrats voted in favor of the bill, the opposition came from 58 Democratic lawmakers.

Six Congressmen did not vote. The House of Representatives rejected all the amendments, which if accepted, would have virtually killed the agreement. The killer amendments were from Brad Sherman, Howard Berman and Edward Markey. However, the deal still has a long way to go before it can be finally implemented. It is likely to be brought before the Senate after the summer recess in September and then to the President for final signature.

After India signs an agreement on safeguards , and those with the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the 123 Agreement with the US, the bill would be brought before the Congress for a second vote.

After the vote, Hyde said: “It clears the way for the US and India to reinforce an already strong, strategic alliance. As it is crafted, it represents a judicious balancing of competing priorities.” Besides, “It will enable India to make energy cheaper, cleaner and more accessible. It would create more customers for the US firms and...both countries will benefit,” he said.

The agreement calls for the US to sell technology to India for nuclear power development. In return, India will open its 14 civilian nuclear reactors to international inspections, agree not to test nuclear weapons, and abide by nuclear export controls.Bush says it’s historic

• “This historic action by the House of Representatives is another important step toward building a new strategic partnership between the United States and India, the world’s oldest and largest democracies.”

— US President George Bush

Three meat grinders for N-Deal: US Congress, NSG and IAEA

MICS - India Shekhar kulshreshtha
The Indo-US nuclear deal takes a significant step as Condoleezza Rice testifies before the US Congress. C. Raja Mohan untangles the complexities

What does the deal involve?

Under the agreement signed by Manmohan Singh and George Bush on July 18, 2005, the U.S. would renew civilian nuclear cooperation with India in return for India separating its military and civilian nuclear programmes and placing the latter under international safeguards.

On March 2, India presented a separation plan that was acceptable to the Bush Administration, which is now moving the US Congress to change the domestic law on non-proliferation and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group to modify the rules on nuclear commerce. Both changes are necessary for India to regain full access to the global nuclear market.

How long would Congress take to change the law?

In the US system of government the Congress can’t be rushed into passing legislation. Just as India took nearly eight months to generate a domestic consensus on the nuclear separation plan, the American Congress is, in theory, free to debate this as long as it wants.

What would clinch the issue is the political momentum that the Administration and friends of India can generate, through lobbying, in favour of the deal.

Contrary to media reports, it’s premature to say Congress will not approve the deal. While there’s expected opposition from the non-proliferation lobby, few Senators and Congressmen have taken a stand. The game has just begun in Washington.

What are the next steps in the legislative process?

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s defence of the deal in both houses of Congress will be followed by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and the House International Relations Committee calling other government officials and non-governmental experts to make their case. The two committees might also hold classified hearings from officials, allowing the Administration to expand on a range of issues in a confidential manner.

Once the deal enjoys broad support in the two committees, they would ‘‘mark up’’ the legislation to the full Senate and the House, which will need to debate this and approve the change in the non-proliferation law.

In both the stages, there might be efforts by the opponents of the deal to ‘‘improve’’ the legislation through amendments. If the Senate and House pass different versions of the legislation, it would have to be reconciled by a committee of the two Houses.

Once the new legislation is in place, India and the US will negotiate a formal agreement for civil nuclear cooperation, which will have to be approved again by the Congress.

How effective is the India Caucus in Congress?

The jury is out on this question. The large India caucus in the Congress was immensely effective a few years ago in beating back annual moves by pro-Pakistan, Khalistan and Kashmir lobbies to censure India on a range of issues.

But the nuclear deal stakes are much higher. Until now membership of the Indian Caucus has been cost-free to Senators and Congressmen. One could easily say nice things about India and win support from the Indian American community. The Caucus is now being tested for the depth and breadth of political commitment for India.

How the India Caucus eventually responds to the nuclear deal would depend on the effectiveness of the Indian American community, which is also being called upon to exert seriously for the first time.

What about the Nuclear Suppliers Group?

The Bush Administration has already approached the NSG for a change of rules on nuclear cooperation with India. While France, Russia and Britain support the American initiative, others — including China, the Scandinavian countries, Austria, South Africa and Brazil — do have reservations. India would have to persuade some of these countries even as the Bush Administration lobbies the organisation. For now, the doubters and fence-sitters have decided to watch how the play unfolds in the US Congress. The NSG might not act before Congress does. If things slow down in Congress, the going might get tougher in the NSG as well.

Where does the International Atomic Energy Agency come in?

The nuclear watchdog has to work out a safeguards agreement that will define the terms and conditions of international inspections on India’s civilian nuclear programme. Since India is not a non-nuclear weapon state and it is not recognised as a nuclear weapon state under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the IAEA will have to figure out a unique ‘‘India-specific’’ safeguards arrangement.

Atomic Energy Commission chairman Anil Kakodkar has begun the process of engaging the IAEA. The safeguards agreement would have to be approved by the 35-nation board of governors of the IAEA. There again, opponents of the deal might have a shot at it.

The big six on capitol hill

The Administration

Condoleezza Rice Unlike many of her predecessors, Rice has emerged as the top gun of American foreign policy. Enjoys full confidence of the President and has immense credibility in the US and its Congress. As one who championed the deal, she also has the responsibility to sell it.

US Congress

Richard Lugar The head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations holds the key to the 100-member Senate. With his reputation as a champion of arms control, winning Lugar’s support is on top of President Bush’s agenda. Though he introduced the draft legislation to the Senate Committee, Lugar is yet to tip his hand.

Hillary Clinton The Senator from New York has been intensely engaged with India, but is yet to endorse the deal. A frontrunner for Democratic nomination for 2008 Presidential poll, she has a high standing in the Democrat liberal establishment and can rally the much-needed Democratic support in Senate and the House.

Tom Lantos A Democrat from California and the ranking minority member of the House International Relations Committee, Lantos is an authoritative voice. Last September, in the first hearings of the House, he brought up the Iran issue which nearly wrecked the prospects for the deal. But since India’s votes against Iran at the IAEA, he has emerged as an important supporter.

John Boehner The majority leader in the House of Representatives is a relatively new face of the Congressional leadership of the Republican Party. Elevated to the top in the wake of a corruption scandal, he has promised a readiness to work with the Democrats. His support will be crucial.

IAEA

Mohammed El Baradei The Egyptian head of the IAEA is highly respected as an objective voice on non-proliferation issues. Was among the first to welcome the deal in July 2005 and defended it at a convocation of non-proliferation experts in Washington late last year. Will have crucial role in facilitating India-specific safeguards agreement at the IAEA and will influence the outcome in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

NSG support: India reaches out to S Africa

MICS - India By Shekhar Kulshreshtha

NEW DELHI, MARCH 27: Rustling up support for the Indo-US nuclear deal in Nuclear Suppliers Group

The issue was taken up by Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma with South African President Thabo Mbeki. Sources said Mbeki took keen interest in the NSG), India reached out to South Africa — a key NSG member that has had reservations on India being given a special status — over the weekend and gave a detailed presentation on the deal.

presentation and was positive in his outlook, but reserved any opinion in the matter. He promised to look into the issue in consultation with his officials. Having renounced its nuclear weapons programme to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state, South Africa has been uncomfortable for this exception being made to accommodate India. However, it does have an elaborate civilian nuclear programme.

While US, France, Russia and other countries are trying to garner support for India from NSG members in Europe, there is a clear sense that India must take the lead in reaching out to South Africa and Brazil — another country that gave up its nuclear weapons programme and signed the NPT — with which it has a close historical ties.

Sharma, who left for Brazil from South Africa, also expressed India’s willingness to start the first ever India-Africa dialogue on the continental scale. Mbeki supported the idea and felt New Delhi could be a positive force in promoting peace, democracy and development. It may be noted that China has such a dialogue mechanism too and is soon to hold the first China-Africa summit. While the idea is similar, South Block officials pointed out that India’s role could be far more extensive than that of China given the fact that the overall political objective was to promote democracy in the continent.

South African Minister for Public Services and Administration Geraldine Fraser Moleketi and Minister for Public Enterprises Alec Erwin came down to Johannesburg specially to meet Sharma on Saturday. With both countries set to jointly celebrate the launch of the Satyagraha by Mahatma Gandhi, India will hope South Africa reflects the partnership in Vienna.

Sharma will now take up the matter with Brazil, which has been less sceptical on the deal but is still to come to terms with the exception being granted to India by the US. India, South Africa and Brazil have a very close dialogue mechanism through the IBSA forum and for this reason, India is backing its chances to get them aboard.

If support from these two countries is forthcoming in the NSG, officials admit that it will make a tremendous difference as the grouping works on the principle of consensus.

US takes n-deal to fuel suppliers

MICS - India by Shekhar kulshreshtha

Posted online: Tuesday, March 21, 2006 at 0000 hrs

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US n-regulatory panel chief will visit Tarapur and talk to DAE this week

NEW DELHI, MARCH 20: Having tabled the legislation before its Congress to enable a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India, US will now take the next important step this week and brief the Nuclear Suppliers Group at Vienna on the deal struck with India.

New Delhi has also been doing its bit ahead of the meeting. Last Tuesday, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran briefed all NSG ambassadors represented in India (nearly 35) on the separation plan and how India is planning to meet all its obligations.

At the Vienna meeting starting Wednesday, US Assistant Secretary of State for international security and non-proliferation Stephen Rademaker and Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Richard Boucher will brief the NSG’s Consultative Group and explain how the deal strengthens the non-proliferation regime.

Significantly, Commissioner of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Peter Lyons will be here around the time the NSG meets. Lyons, who starts his trip on Wednesday, will also visit Tarapur and meet with DAE officials. He will look at the safety, regulatory and management aspects while firming up a view, which could be important as the Congress debates the legislation, on standards and practices being adopted by India.

It’s learnt that a senior Indian diplomat will also be going from Delhi to be present in Vienna.

The Consultative Group comprises key officials from all 45 members and decides by consensus. It is the important functional layer below the NSG Plenary. The plenary, which also includes political representatives, will be the all-important meeting where the final call will be made and this is expected to take place end of May or early June.

This will be the first time when the NSG will be fully briefed on details of the understanding which was still in the works when the Consultative Group met the last time. This will include the separation plan developed by India and the legislation which Bush Administration is pushing through in its Congress.

While this group is not the decision-making body, its observations will count as individual countries mull over the presentation before the plenary meets.

The Russian decision to supply fuel for Tarapur reactors under the safety exception clause is also expected to come up during the discussions and New Delhi will hope this does not balloon into an issue big enough to alter views of NSG members.

Tarapur deal sealed, uranium is on its way

MICS -India By shekhar kulshreshtha

Posted online: Saturday, March 18, 2006 at 0000 hrs

Russia Moscow informs NSG of 60-tonne supply; given critics in US Congress, India doesn’t talk reactors yet

NEW DELHI, MARCH 17: Encouraged by the movement forward on the civilian-military separation as per the Indo-US nuclear understanding, India and Russia have sealed the deal on fuel supplies for Tarapur reactors. The consignment is expected to reach India in a matter of days.

The supply of 60 metric tonnes of low enriched uranium will ensure that the Tarapur 1 and 2 reactors—both (160 MW each) under safeguards—run for the next five years. Currently, the reactors would have run out of fuel over the next six to eight months. The two reactors have recently been refurbished.

“I would like to convey our warm appreciation to the Russian government for responding positively to meet the requirements for nuclear fuel supplies to Tarapur 1 & 2,’’ said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at a joint press conference with visiting Russian PM Mikhail Fradkov.

While the US is upset over the timing of the deal arguing that this bolsters critics on the Hill, both New Delhi and Moscow have clarified this in line with guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Russia has notified the NSG on the fuel supply citing safety of the two reactors.

New Delhi is also underlining the point that the supplies would not have come through so promptly—in 2001, Russia’s supplies provoked international criticism—had it not been for the positive movement on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

India had been raising this with Russia for nearly a year and even last December, Russian President Vladimir Putin had made it clear that supplies would be made under NSG guidelines.

Still, Moscow waited as India and US negotiated the details of the nuclear deal and now that the two countries have agreed on a separation plan, Russia moved to notify the NSG. All this even though TAPS 1 and 2 are already under international safeguards. They were set up with American help four decades ago.

Seeing the opportunity, sources said, Moscow is now more positive on building more 1000 MW reactors in Kudankulam.

This was conveyed by Fradkov today and Singh even described Kudankulam as the ‘‘flagship’’ of Indo-Russian cooperation in this sector. But on this, New Delhi prefers to take its time given the debate underway in the US Congress where the Bush Administration has tabled the India-specific legislation that will enable it to sign a full civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India.

In the case of fuel for Tarapur, the July 18 joint statement does cater for other countries stepping in even as India and the US finalise the deal.

Moreover, South Block feels it is a matter of technical detail of when and how the fuel reaches India.

But New Delhi was careful not to enter into negotiations for new reactors precisely because the deal is being discussed in Washington. There is clear sense here that once the deal is through, it will transform the range of options before India which will turn into a lucrative market for countries like US, France and Russia to sell power-producing reactors.

Besides this, the two counties today set up a joint study group to look at ways to raise the trade volume to $10 billion by 2010. Russia also agreed to re-invest much of the Rupee debt (close to $1 billion) in India. The two countries also signed an agreement on Indian participation to the the global satellite navigation system (GLONAS), an alternate to the US global positioning system.

Indo-us nuke deal would unravel NPT

MICS - India by Shekhar kulshrestha

Islamabad, march 17: Unhappy over the us refusal to enter into a nuclear deal with it, Pakistan has warned that the Indo-us nuclear accord would lead to the collapse of international agreements aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. It also demanded “equality of treatment” and pledged to pursue in this direction. “The whole nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will unravel. It’s only a matter of time before other countries will act in the same way,” Pakistan Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri said in an interview to London daily Financial Times.

“Nuclear weapons are the currency of power and many countries would like to use it. Once this goes through, the npt will be finished. It’s not just Iran and North Korea. Brazil, Argentina and Pakistan will think differently,” he warned.

Kasuri said the US should not be treating India and Pakistan differently. “The us should be conscious of the sentiments of this country. Public opinion sees things in black and white. They compare the us to China and feel it has not been a friend the way China has,” he said.

US ready to have N-deal even with a minority govt

MICS-India By shekhar kulshreshtha
Posted online: Monday , July 21, 2008 at 06:17:37
Updated: Monday , July 21, 2008 at 06:14:04
Washington, July 21: Ahead of the crucial trust vote that will decide the fate of the UPA government, the US on Monday said it will move forward on the nuclear deal with any dispensation in New Delhi -- even if it is in minority.

Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Richard Boucher said Bush administration will have no problem in dealing with a minority government as “minority governments are common around the world.” “I don’t have them off the top of my head, but I mean, minority governments are common around the world,” he said.

“You can’t say, ‘Oh, well, we are going to stop dealing with you till the next election or until some new coalition or something. That’s not for us to say,” Boucher said commenting on the future of the nuclear deal if the UPA government fails to win the confidence vote in the Lok Sabha.

He said the US will continue to work with any legitimate government in India New Delhi to push forward the deal.

“If they have a legitimate government -- people who are empowered to run the government -- that’s who we’ll deal with,” Boucher said.

“In terms of the United States and India, we deal with the legally constituted government of India -- whoever is running that government at the time, that’s who we sign agreements with. So, that’s not a problem for us,” he said.

He said the Bush administration was ready to “go as far as” possible to see conclusion of the deal.

“We are going to work with the Indians, we are going to work with the Congress and we are going to take this as far as we can go,” Boucher said.

“We are very excited by the prospect, we’ll see what happens in the confidence vote, but however far the Indians could go, we are going to try to take it that far or further.

So, that’s what we are going to do,” he said. MORE PTI SK MPB 07211751 DEL NUCLEAR-US 2LST Asked about whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was little too late in pushing ahead with the deal, Boucher said it may not be “too late.” “I guess what I’ll say is it’s never too late. This is not a deal between a government and another government. It’s a deal between the United States and India -- it’s good for India, it’s good for the United States.” On whether main opposition BJP’s contention that without parliamentary approval the UPA government does not have the moral right to conclude the nuclear deal, Boucher said “on our side, there is no legal problem or moral problem”.

“On their side there may not be a legal question, but there’s always political questions and they’re going to have to figure that one out themselves “(But) As long as they are a duly constituted government, we are happy to deal with them,” he said.

On the timeframe left for the 110th Congress to clear the deal, Boucher said the administration would try to push it and if the present Congress could not ratify it then the new Congress would take it up.

“As we move through, if we can move it to the point where the president can certify all the things that he has to certify, take the package and send it to Congress, we’ll do that. If the Congress is in a position to act on it, I am sure they’ll try to do that.

“So, I think, everybody wants to take it as far as we can. I can’t promise what the US Congress will do, but if we take it to some point and times expires on this Congress, then the new Congress will have to take it up -- that’s all you can say. So, that’s our pledge."