MICS - India Shekhar kulshreshtha
The Indo-US nuclear deal takes a significant step as Condoleezza Rice testifies before the US Congress. C. Raja Mohan untangles the complexities
What does the deal involve?
Under the agreement signed by Manmohan Singh and George Bush on July 18, 2005, the U.S. would renew civilian nuclear cooperation with India in return for India separating its military and civilian nuclear programmes and placing the latter under international safeguards.
On March 2, India presented a separation plan that was acceptable to the Bush Administration, which is now moving the US Congress to change the domestic law on non-proliferation and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group to modify the rules on nuclear commerce. Both changes are necessary for India to regain full access to the global nuclear market.
How long would Congress take to change the law?
In the US system of government the Congress can’t be rushed into passing legislation. Just as India took nearly eight months to generate a domestic consensus on the nuclear separation plan, the American Congress is, in theory, free to debate this as long as it wants.
What would clinch the issue is the political momentum that the Administration and friends of India can generate, through lobbying, in favour of the deal.
Contrary to media reports, it’s premature to say Congress will not approve the deal. While there’s expected opposition from the non-proliferation lobby, few Senators and Congressmen have taken a stand. The game has just begun in Washington.
What are the next steps in the legislative process?
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s defence of the deal in both houses of Congress will be followed by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and the House International Relations Committee calling other government officials and non-governmental experts to make their case. The two committees might also hold classified hearings from officials, allowing the Administration to expand on a range of issues in a confidential manner.
Once the deal enjoys broad support in the two committees, they would ‘‘mark up’’ the legislation to the full Senate and the House, which will need to debate this and approve the change in the non-proliferation law.
In both the stages, there might be efforts by the opponents of the deal to ‘‘improve’’ the legislation through amendments. If the Senate and House pass different versions of the legislation, it would have to be reconciled by a committee of the two Houses.
Once the new legislation is in place, India and the US will negotiate a formal agreement for civil nuclear cooperation, which will have to be approved again by the Congress.
How effective is the India Caucus in Congress?
The jury is out on this question. The large India caucus in the Congress was immensely effective a few years ago in beating back annual moves by pro-Pakistan, Khalistan and Kashmir lobbies to censure India on a range of issues.
But the nuclear deal stakes are much higher. Until now membership of the Indian Caucus has been cost-free to Senators and Congressmen. One could easily say nice things about India and win support from the Indian American community. The Caucus is now being tested for the depth and breadth of political commitment for India.
How the India Caucus eventually responds to the nuclear deal would depend on the effectiveness of the Indian American community, which is also being called upon to exert seriously for the first time.
What about the Nuclear Suppliers Group?
The Bush Administration has already approached the NSG for a change of rules on nuclear cooperation with India. While France, Russia and Britain support the American initiative, others — including China, the Scandinavian countries, Austria, South Africa and Brazil — do have reservations. India would have to persuade some of these countries even as the Bush Administration lobbies the organisation. For now, the doubters and fence-sitters have decided to watch how the play unfolds in the US Congress. The NSG might not act before Congress does. If things slow down in Congress, the going might get tougher in the NSG as well.
Where does the International Atomic Energy Agency come in?
The nuclear watchdog has to work out a safeguards agreement that will define the terms and conditions of international inspections on India’s civilian nuclear programme. Since India is not a non-nuclear weapon state and it is not recognised as a nuclear weapon state under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the IAEA will have to figure out a unique ‘‘India-specific’’ safeguards arrangement.
Atomic Energy Commission chairman Anil Kakodkar has begun the process of engaging the IAEA. The safeguards agreement would have to be approved by the 35-nation board of governors of the IAEA. There again, opponents of the deal might have a shot at it.
The big six on capitol hill
The Administration
Condoleezza Rice Unlike many of her predecessors, Rice has emerged as the top gun of American foreign policy. Enjoys full confidence of the President and has immense credibility in the US and its Congress. As one who championed the deal, she also has the responsibility to sell it.
US Congress
Richard Lugar The head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations holds the key to the 100-member Senate. With his reputation as a champion of arms control, winning Lugar’s support is on top of President Bush’s agenda. Though he introduced the draft legislation to the Senate Committee, Lugar is yet to tip his hand.
Hillary Clinton The Senator from New York has been intensely engaged with India, but is yet to endorse the deal. A frontrunner for Democratic nomination for 2008 Presidential poll, she has a high standing in the Democrat liberal establishment and can rally the much-needed Democratic support in Senate and the House.
Tom Lantos A Democrat from California and the ranking minority member of the House International Relations Committee, Lantos is an authoritative voice. Last September, in the first hearings of the House, he brought up the Iran issue which nearly wrecked the prospects for the deal. But since India’s votes against Iran at the IAEA, he has emerged as an important supporter.
John Boehner The majority leader in the House of Representatives is a relatively new face of the Congressional leadership of the Republican Party. Elevated to the top in the wake of a corruption scandal, he has promised a readiness to work with the Democrats. His support will be crucial.
IAEA
Mohammed El Baradei The Egyptian head of the IAEA is highly respected as an objective voice on non-proliferation issues. Was among the first to welcome the deal in July 2005 and defended it at a convocation of non-proliferation experts in Washington late last year. Will have crucial role in facilitating India-specific safeguards agreement at the IAEA and will influence the outcome in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
No comments:
Post a Comment